Project Overview

The MedGIFORS project (Medicane GNSS-based Impact Forecasting and Emergency Management System) focuses on addressing the increasing occurrence and impact of severe convective storms and Medicanes in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Over the past decade, these hurricane-like cyclonic systems have become a major environmental threat, causing heavy precipitation, flash floods, extensive damages, and loss of lives across Mediterranean countries. 

A key element of the project is the exploitation of Water Vapour (WV), which is the largest single greenhouse gas and a major driver of weather patterns and severe weather events. The project utilizes Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations, where signal propagation delays in the troposphere are used to estimate Integrated Water Vapour (IWV). These measurements provide a valuable data source for improving the performance of high-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, which currently face challenges due to the rapid spatial and temporal variability of water vapour. 

MedGIFORS responds to the limitations of existing atmospheric measurement techniques and forecasting systems by combining space-based and ground-based meteorological data. The project develops an integrated near real-time monitoring and forecasting system, structured around three main components: an observational component for GNSS data processing, a simulation component for weather and flood forecasting, and an application component for emergency management. 

By linking advanced forecasting capabilities with emergency response mechanisms, MedGIFORS introduces an impact-based forecasting approach, aiming to improve early warning systems and preparedness actions. The system is designed to support authorities and stakeholders in managing risks related to heavy rain and flood events, ultimately enhancing resilience and disaster preparedness in the Eastern Mediterranean region. 

PROJECT STRUCTURE

WP1 – Project Management 
Ensures the overall coordination of the project, including administrative, technical, and financial management, as well as monitoring progress and deliverables.  

WP2 – Dissemination and Communication Activities 
Focuses on promoting the project’s results, increasing awareness, and engaging stakeholders through communication tools, events, and outreach activities.  

WP3 – Coordination of Horizon Europe Proposal 
Prepares and coordinates future research proposals, supporting the continuation and expansion of project outcomes within Horizon Europe programmes.  

WP4 – GNSS-Based Medicane – Flood Forecasting System Development 
Develops the core forecasting system by integrating GNSS-derived atmospheric data with numerical weather and hydrological models to predict Medicanes and flood events.  

WP5 – Impact Forecasting and Emergency Management Development 
Translates forecasting outputs into impact-based information and develops tools to support emergency response and decision-making processes.  

WP6 – Pilot Application of the MedGIFORS 
Implements and tests the system in pilot regions (Cyprus and Crete), validating its performance under real conditions. 

GENERAL PROJECT OBJECTIVES

General Project Objectives 

The main objective of MedGIFORS is to develop a pilot transnational impact forecasting and emergency management system capable of responding to flash floods and heavy precipitation events caused by severe storms and Medicanes. 

The project aims to improve the accuracy and reliability of weather forecasting, particularly for extreme precipitation events, by integrating GNSS-derived atmospheric data into advanced NWP models. By enhancing the representation of water vapour distribution in the atmosphere, the project addresses one of the key limitations in current forecasting systems, enabling better identification of instability conditions that lead to heavy rainfall. 

Another core objective is the development of a real-time Medicane and flood forecasting system, combining meteorological and hydrological modelling approaches. This includes the use of high-resolution models to simulate precipitation, runoff, and flood risks, providing actionable information for early warning and emergency response. 

MedGIFORS also aims to establish a pilot emergency management system for Cyprus and Crete, supporting preparedness and response actions through standardized protocols and real-time data integration. In parallel, the project promotes the integration of space and ground-based observations, contributing to a more comprehensive understanding of extreme weather phenomena. 

Furthermore, the project seeks to strengthen collaboration between research institutions, industry, and public authorities, fostering knowledge transfer and innovation. It also aims to align with European priorities related to disaster resilience and climate adaptation, paving the way for future participation in Horizon Europe initiatives. 

RESEARCHERS

• Christina Oikonomou – HO Frederick Research Center (FRC)  
• Christos Giannaros – HO Frederick Research Center (FRC) 
• Haris Haralambous – HO Frederick Research Center (FRC) 
• Despina Giannadaki – PA1 CLOUDWATER Ltd 
• Eleftherios Loizou – PA2 Nicosia Development Agency (ANEL) 
• Vassiliki Kotroni – FRO National Observatory of Athens (NOA) 
• Konstantinos / Kostas Lagouvardos – FRO National Observatory of Athens (NOA)